[category]
[title]
A record-setting El Niño is gearing up to dominate the 2026–2027 winter season, and AccuWeather’s long-range winter forecast warns that travel plans could be affected dramatic shifts in weather patterns. Heavy precipitation, flooding and severe weather could rock major travel corridors, while typically snowy regions could see unseasonably mild conditions.
"This has the potential to be the strongest El Niño on record," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. Forecasters say it's certain to surpass the El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98. El Niño effects are typically more prominent during the winter months, and this winter will be no different. Here's everything Americans need to know about the story winter ahead.
RECOMMENDED: This national weather map shows which U.S. states could have the snowiest winter
Which U.S. regions will see El Niño-related travel disruptions?
As for travel impacts, California and parts of the West Coast are projected to face some of the worst. Ocean moisture driven by atmospheric rivers will bring recurring storms to the Pacific Coast, starting in Central and Northern California before pushing into the Los Angeles and San Diego metro areas later in the season. This means heavy low-altitude rain, landslides, coastal flooding, high winds and mountain road closures.
"The primary storm track, particularly in the first part of winter, will be across the southern U.S.," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill. "The southern storm track is generally stronger, more active and can produce flooding rain, landslides and heavy mountain snow for parts of the nation."
While individual storms could dump feet of mountain snow—creating dangerous driving conditions over high-elevation passes—the early-season snowfall will simultaneously serve as a major boon for ski destinations from the Sierra Nevada through the Great Basin and into the central and southern Rockies.
If you're traveling to or through the Gulf Coast, the south-central Plains or the Southeast, the disruption risk is also fairly high. Persistent cloud cover and low-pressure systems moving along the southern jet stream are forecast to hold temperatures down and trigger severe weather outbreaks. The Four Corners region could see colder than average conditions.
"A few severe weather events can occur across parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic with the potential for tornadoes," Pastelok said.
Additionally, repeated heavy rains across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valleys raise the risk of river flooding by early spring, potentially impacting freight and river transit.
Which U.S. regions will escape the worst of El Niño?
While the West Coast and Southeast are looking risky for travel, the northern U.S. has a better outlook. Much of the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest are expected to see below-average seasonal snowfall and fewer Arctic air intrusions.
Major East Coast hubs like Philadelphia and Boston are projected to see less than half of last winter's snow totals. However, travelers shouldn't completely drop their guard. "While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities," Pastelok cautioned, noting late January and February as windows to watch.
Why is El Niño predicted to be stronger than ever this winter?
"Not all El Niño winter seasons behave the same," Pastelok said. Ocean warming triggers changes in the atmosphere and consequently storm tracks. The warmer the water, the stronger the effect on weather patterns, and this year's water temperatures have exceeded the threshold that fosters development of an El Niño.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring several factors that could impact weather patterns even more, from unusually warm Pacific water to storm tracks through the Plains and temperatures in Baffin Bay thou could trigger bigger storms along the East Coast.
Find the full AccuWeather winter forecast here, and stay patient and flexible throughout the winter travel season.