If you were counting on crisp mornings, crunchy leaves and sweater weather by mid-September, you might want to lower your expectations. Forecasters say much of the U.S. will be hanging onto summer well past its expiration date.
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook hints at trouble, predicting "above-normal temperatures for almost the entire country" through October. AccuWeather agrees, calling for a warm, humid start to autumn in the East and a sluggish cool-down in the West, reminiscent of the record-breaking heat of 2016.
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From New England to the Mid-Atlantic, September will feel more like August-lite, with muggy nights and stubbornly warm afternoons. The Southeast could get slammed by late-season tropical storms, pushing moisture north into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys. That means potential flooding in the Central Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast, especially if storms intensify. October could bring severe weather featuring wind damage, hail and a messy clash between warm southern air and cold fronts from the Northern Plains.
West Coast states like California, Nevada and Utah are set for a slow-motion seasonal shift, with warm days lingering deep into October. But the dry heat comes with danger. Pacific Ocean anomalies are nudging the jet stream north, drying out landscapes and raising wildfire risk. Central and southern California could see large fires sparked by wind events as early as September, while moisture-starved thunderstorms might ignite blazes in the Pacific Northwest.
Even if the flames are hundreds of miles away, forecasters warn that active fires in Canada and the western U.S. will continue sending hazy skies and poor air quality into the Midwest and Northeast well into fall.
Not everywhere will be stuck in summer mode though. The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest might get their first snow by mid-to-late October, earlier than the usual October 26 benchmark in places like Bismarck, North Dakota. Interior Northwest mountain towns could see flakes as early as late September.
Bottom line, expect a season of flip-flops in the West, hurricane prep in the Southeast, wildfire smoke drifting across the country and surprise snow in the far north. Just don't expect a storybook changing of the seasons this fall.