[title]
Break out the pumpkin spice but maybe hold off on those heavy sweaters. The National Weather Service says New York is likely in for a warmer-than-usual fall, even as the calendar insists summer is behind us.
While the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted a cooler, drier October, federal meteorologists are throwing cold water on that claim. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the NWS, reports a 40- to 50-percent chance of above-average temperatures for the Northeast through November. Translation: more lingering iced coffees and fewer urgent jacket dashes.
But don’t expect forecasters to get too specific. As NWS meteorologist Bryan Ramsey explained, “It’s much more difficult to predict climate swings versus the day-to-day weather,” Ramsey told Gothamist. “It’s kind of like a cascading effect where you only have so many options for what we can for weather tomorrow. And then you look three days from now, five days from now, seven days from now. And it gets harder and harder to predict what could happen because you’ll have more possibilities.”
What does this mean for New Yorkers? Potentially longer leaf-peeping delays and an extended allergy season, since warmer falls can push back peak foliage and lengthen the lifespan of pollen. Climate Central notes that mild autumns can also keep summerlike heat waves hanging on, increase energy costs for cooling and even stretch wildfire risk further into the year.
Last year’s fall was the hottest on record nationwide in 130 years, with more than half of U.S. states ranking among their top three warmest. NOAA data shows autumns across the country have been trending warmer since the early 1900s, with the past decade making “sweater weather” something of a moving target.
Still, that doesn’t mean every week will be balmy. The NWS short-term outlook calls for cooler days in the low 70s at the season’s start, with rain expected to sweep in by midweek. After that, it’s anyone’s guess which days will feel like November, and which will still cling to September.
While the equinox officially tilts us toward shorter days, don’t be surprised if fall in New York feels less like a crisp reboot and more like a bonus round of late-summer warmth. Just maybe keep both iced lattes and scarves in rotation—you’ll probably need both.